DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 9.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins's 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 99th percentile for WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.3% to 63.2%.