DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-138).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to total 8.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins has been in the 95th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 72.3 figure this year.
This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up a whopping 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's receiving skills have tailed off this season, accumulating just 4.3 adjusted receptions vs 6.8 last season.

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