Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 2:49 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+574/-869).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dawson Knox's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 77.4% to 80.6%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the league against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (73.3% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the poor Baltimore Ravens defense has been torched for a staggering 0.71 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bills being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most run-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
The projections expect the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Bills this year (a lowly 53.2 per game on average).

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