Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:22 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+525/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.0% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Raiders pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.5%) to TEs this year (84.5%).
This year, the deficient Raiders defense has allowed a whopping 1.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Bills as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 7th-most run-focused offense in football in the red zone (46.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buffalo Bills.
At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bills.
Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).

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