Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 12, 2026 12:12 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+527/-661).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.
Dawson Knox's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 77.4% to 100.0%.
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest TDs in football (0.25 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (46.5% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bills.
The Bills have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 52.5 plays per game.
After averaging 21.0 air yards per game last season, Dawson Knox has seen a big decrease this season, currently averaging 2.0 per game.
Dawson Knox's 8.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.3.

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