Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 22, 2026 7:47 AM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+625/-788).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing improved weather in this week's contest.
With a top-tier 15.7% Red Zone Target Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Dawson Knox has been as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.
The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (45.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Bills.
The predictive model expects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.

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