Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 17, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+529/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -957 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.8% pass rate.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We should be able to count on some regression with more favorable conditions in this game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Lions defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The model projects Dawson Knox to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (10.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.2% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the stout Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a puny 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the lowest rate in the league.