Dawson Knox Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+641/-669).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.9 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better weather in this game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
With an impressive 16.2% Red Zone Target Rate (80th percentile) last year, Dawson Knox ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.
Dawson Knox has notched a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game last year: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (48.3% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football versus the Texans defense last year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).

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