Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Raiders pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.5%) to TEs this year (84.5%).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Bills as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bills.
Dawson Knox's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.3.
The Bills offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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