Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 12, 2026 12:07 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.
Dawson Knox's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 77.4% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Bills have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 52.5 plays per game.
Dawson Knox's 8.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.3.
As it relates to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (49.6%) to tight ends this year (49.6%).