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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+167/-222).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -213 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -222.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Dawson Knox's 71.9% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects an impressive boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 64.8% rate.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Miami's LB corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 122.6 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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