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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (35.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Dawson Knox has run a route on 54.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 123.1 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

With a bad 63.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Dawson Knox has been as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to TEs.

The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (66.1%).

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