Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Dawson Knox has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the highest Completion% in the NFL (80.3%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (80.3%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
Dawson Knox's 21.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 27.4.
Dawson Knox's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.5% to 64.4%.

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