Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Dawson Knox has gone out for fewer passes this year (60.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (75.9%).
Dawson Knox's 62.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a significant diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 74.5% mark.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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