Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (61.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.