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Dawson Knox
NFL · Player Props
Dawson Knox
TE · Buffalo Bills
Receptions
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022 Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC
NFL Props Dawson Knox Receptions

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Favors Over
  • The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
  • THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Favors Under
  • The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (61.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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