Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+129/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 81.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.