Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 82.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.9%).
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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