Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+107/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.1% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.