Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.6% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox has been among the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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