My Account Log Out

reorder

Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-195/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -195.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 4.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

Dawson Knox has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.

Dawson Knox's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™