Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (61.0) versus TEs this year.
The Raiders pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.5%) to TEs this year (84.5%).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Bills as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bills.
Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (11.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.3.

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