Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 12, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-107/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.
Dawson Knox's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 77.4% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 52.5 plays per game.
After averaging 21.0 air yards per game last season, Dawson Knox has seen a big decrease this season, currently averaging 2.0 per game.
Dawson Knox's 8.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.3.

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