Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+152/-183).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
With an outstanding 9.1 adjusted yards per target (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Dawson Knox ranks among the top TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Dawson Knox has been one of the worst tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.47 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-fewest in football.