Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a mere 28.04 seconds per play, the Bills offense comes in as the 10th-fastest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing improved weather in this week's contest.
The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Dawson Knox profiles as one of the most efficient receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 9.18 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 84th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.79 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills as the 4th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.