Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 22, 2026 7:47 AM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-161/+134).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing improved weather in this week's contest.
The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Dawson Knox profiles as one of the most efficient receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 9.18 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 84th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.79 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.