Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 17, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+128/-161).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -161.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.8% pass rate.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We should be able to count on some regression with more favorable conditions in this game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Lions defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Since the start of last season, the stout Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a puny 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the lowest rate in the league.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 7.3 yards.
The Lions linebackers profile as the 5th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.