Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.9 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better weather in this game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
Dawson Knox has notched a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game last year: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Dawson Knox comes in as one of the weakest TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown good efficiency against tight ends last year, yielding 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.

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