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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • The Texans safeties project as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 49.8 plays per game.
  • Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (40.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (56.5%).
  • Dawson Knox has totaled far fewer air yards this year (6.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
  • With a feeble 66.1% Adjusted Completion% (11th percentile) since the start of last season, Dawson Knox stands as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.

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