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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Dawson Knox has played on 58.8% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

When it comes to air yards, Dawson Knox grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a striking 54.0 per game.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Dolphins pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

With a weak 63.7% Adjusted Completion% (10th percentile) since the start of last season, Dawson Knox ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to TEs.

Dawson Knox grades out as one of the least effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging just 6.13 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 15th percentile.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus TEs since the start of last season, giving up 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

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