Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 12, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox has accrued a monstrous 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 34.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
The New York Jets defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in football (57.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

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