Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to earn 4.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (67.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
Dawson Knox's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 7.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.89 rate last year.

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