Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 10:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.0% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the NFL (77.7%) versus TEs this year (77.7%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
Dawson Knox has totaled far fewer air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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