Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+168/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.80 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.5%).

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