Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Davis Mills has generated just 3.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (8th percentile).

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