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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 231.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 232.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 38.5 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Davis Mills has been among the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.24 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 22nd percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.2%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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