Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 217.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 234.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 40.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Davis Mills's throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 59.4%.
Davis Mills has been among the worst per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.19 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 19th percentile.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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