Davis Mills Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Interceptions

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Davis Mills Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-183/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -183.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Davis Mills has averaged 0.98 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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