Davis Mills Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Interceptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have intercepted 1.07 targets per game since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best defense in the league by this statistic.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.