Davis Mills Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.0%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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