Davis Mills Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Completions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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