David Sills Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

David Sills

WR · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:55 AM UTC

Analysis

David Sills Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects David Sills to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this week (14.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.4% in games he has played).
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (58.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (58.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.