David Njoku Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 22, 2026 7:47 AM EST

Analysis

David Njoku Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+574/-719).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -719.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are heavy -7-point underdogs.
The 4th-most plays in the league have been run by the Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.4 per game on average).
David Njoku has posted a massive 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
David Njoku's 74.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a noteworthy improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 71.0% figure.
With a remarkable ratio of 0.27 per game through the air (82nd percentile), David Njoku places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chargers.
The projections expect the Chargers to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We ought to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions in this game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast David Njoku to be a much smaller part of his team's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (13.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.9% in games he has played).