David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 66.0 plays per game.
The model projects David Njoku to garner 4.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
With an impressive 3.8 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) this year, David Njoku has been as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 52.8% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
David Njoku's 14.0% Target Share this season shows a a noteworthy decline in his passing attack workload over last season's 20.3% rate.

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