David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 19, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accrue 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 19.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

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