David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
In this week's game, David Njoku is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
David Njoku's 64.9% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching skills over last season's 77.2% figure.
This year, the stout Jacksonville Jaguars defense has given up a feeble 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 9th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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