David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.
The model projects David Njoku to garner 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
With a stellar 4.5 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) this year, David Njoku places among the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
This year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 82.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the highest rate in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, David Njoku has been featured much less in his offense's air attack.
David Njoku's 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows an impressive regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 77.2% mark.