David Njoku Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to garner 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his team's passing attack this season (20.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.8%).
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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