David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.
The model projects David Njoku to garner 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
David Njoku has been one of the top TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 44.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
David Njoku's 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial improvement in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 5.2% rate.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.
After totaling 45.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has gotten worse this year, currently averaging 21.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, David Njoku has been featured much less in his offense's air attack.