David Njoku Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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David Njoku

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+119/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to earn 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this year (20.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
David Njoku has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) to tight ends this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in football (54%) to TEs this year (54.0%).

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