David Njoku Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

David Njoku

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 6:48 PM UTC

Analysis

David Njoku Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-589).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +336 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
David Njoku has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
David Njoku has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.
David Njoku's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 77th percentile for TEs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.6%) to tight ends since the start of last season (68.6%).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 7th-best DT corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.