David Montgomery Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+147/-153).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football in the red zone (60.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.5 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a massive 59.8 per game on average).
While David Montgomery has earned 66.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Houston's run game near the goal line in this contest at 51.5%.
David Montgomery has accrued a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Titans, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.8 per game) this year.
In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
With a remarkable ratio of 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game (83rd percentile), David Montgomery places as one of the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the league this year.